Friday, April 09, 2004

The Fighting in Iraq, Part II

Old Post: My last post on the situation in Iraq is here.

You may be wondering how things are going in Iraq. If you go by the news, this is another Tet offensive, which is good, since we won the Tet offensive. Unfortunately, the news media never figured that out, and they managed to convince the rest of the United States that we lost, which in turn led to a loss of the popular will and the eventual ignominious end to the Vietnam War. I don't think that will happen this time for two reasons. First, the news media has nowhere near the respect it had during the Vietnam war; it's been going down since the seventies. Just within the last three years, their last two quagmire predictions, Afghanistan and Iraq respectively, demonstrated that they don't have a clue what's happening in a war. Second, there's no unpopular draft to lower public support this time. In fact, re-enlistment in our all volunteer miltary is running high.

Most likely, we are winning the battles there. Captain Ed thinks the recent kidnappings are a sign of desperation. In Fallujah, the marines are giving the enemy a chance to sue for peace, but returning fire if fired upon. James Taranto points to an article that indicates that our enemies are not as brave as they think they are. Still, it's going to be bloody, although I maintain my contention that it's not going to be long. About a month at the most, I think, maybe only a week for an end to the major fighting. It's still possible that the whole situation in Iraq could devolve into chaos, but I'm betting against it.

Update: Added link on military re-enlistment.

New Post: And where are we after (nearly) a month. It's lasted longer than I thought, but it's also been less bloody than I thought. More above.

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